This Thursday evening, Integrity Investment Advisors, Inc. of San Diego, California will offer "Real Estate Investments – 3 ways to protect your assets in a down market". The event is at 7:00 pm at their headquarters,

11772 Sorrento Valley Road, Suite 100
San Diego, CA 92121

(and interested parties should kindly call in an RSVP to 858-523-0093. Refreshments are provided!)

Some say affluent people have already begun off-loading real estate, shorting REITS, or hedging with futures. Presidential advisors claim no housing bubble exists, and others urge correction from a bubble shrinking down. Economists, journalists, and mathematicians debate whether fundamentals explain housing prices.

Are banks rationally providing mortgages or playing in the moral hazard of a liquid market? Does America's housing market reflect global housing trends or defy them? Are rental prices in line with housing services? How badly are strange taxes distorting housing prices? Was there really long ago a Tulip Bubble, stife for possessing the beauty of a rare flower, or is it myth and legend?

Is a house owned in bubble less owned or more owned than a house bought in market without froth? It may be less owned --- one needs to sell it in good order to the next rational speculator --- or it may be more owned, as one so bravely over-extends to secure the good in question. If the asset does not comprise part of one's enduring legacy, who will steward that house to good use over the long course?

If "clothes make the man" and "you are what you drive", how much does the asset of a house, and all of its shifting financial relations (with ownership, renting, taxation, eminent taking, land grant ...), make the person? Does Justice Souter know?

How much of a house, and a bubble, are material --- here and now in the world? How much of house, and a bubble, is nounemal --- a state of mind, a coming into and going out of Existence, an American Dream? Can we gain in these ethereal depths, gazing across the sublime, glittering Pacific from Torrey Pines?

07.18.2005 As much as any nice lady in Springfield, Illinois could read this last week on Rove Rage and Plame Wars, I have. Smoke and mirrors inside the Beltway, but it is so early, still July. Not yet August!

Maybe timings will unwind just so for a long August day, steamy and menacing in its misleading quiet. Then, we can grind bitter embers of impudent intrigues slowly through our knowing minds.

Four years ago, we had another slow August. Golden day mellowing and turning to another endless sun-filled eternity. We lived, day upon blessed day. But also that August held awful menace, with dogs and police sifting again and again the grounds of our capital's Rock Creek Park.

No endless day, no fierce menace, no charred ember of Truth, forestalled the ensuing thrust in contingency's store: 9-11 came, act done, after golden, slow August. And this time, menace has struck our London, dear Londontown. What is in store by Fortune's hand?

No treachery or relenting prevails. In Time's great maw, with its hungry tiger teeth sunk deep into quivering Contingency, only Truth prevails.

We should read of it (Truth) in the news, come August, come Future.

What, when, is seeking and pursuit when a good is desired?

Is a sale a sale, when, just when? Not when it is a simple idea of purchase in the mind of the buyer, or officials in state visits to Niger. Or, not when it is an idea in the mind of an investigator who finds no receipt of delivered good. Not when the available yellowcake is slated for shipping off to France or Spain. Or, not when a shipment is diverted, slipped off, skedaddled off from chartered arrival in France or Spain or wherever, to shipment elsewhere?

Where are the sixty-one suitcase bombs? Who bought them?: I have read that cash lying out and about on the street, is not much of an economic reality.

If Knowledge makes us strong, our threat is Ignorance. The fourth estate does not grasp the threat quite as suggested here. Mr. Blair says on July 15,

"The greatest danger is that we fail to face up to the nature of the threat we are dealing with. What we witnessed in London last Thursday week was not an aberrant act. It was not random. It was not a product of particular local circumstances in West Yorkshire. Senseless though any such horrible murder is ... ... It was done according to a plan. It was meant. ... ...

Their cause ... ... is founded on a belief ..."

Yet, it is worse than Mr. Blair explains. Their cause is founded, as great evil can be founded, on a possibility: Their cause is founded upon the very possibility and contingency they exploit and by which their intent is to win.

Why do they do it? Because they can.

It is only that simple in the bottom line.

Mr. Blair urges argument in confrontation of their belief. Argument does not suffice, for war is at hand and we are in it. One also needs the Spirit that will confront the evil.

We need the Spirit that is within us when we assess War necessary, just, effective, valorous and due War's duration. It is a long, hard, slog. One we give over to political processes which are also long in conflict's urgency.


Time's menace, that ripped and bleeding contingency, never outlasts Truth. Truth is eternal, whole, and beautiful.
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From the Butler Commission Report, (14th July 2004, for The Review of Intelligence on Weapons of Mass Destruction, Report of a Committee of Privy Counsellors, Chairman: The Rt Hon The Lord Butler of Brockwell KG GCB CVO, p.139),

"503. From our examination of the intelligence and other material on Iraqi attempts to buy uranium from Africa, we have concluded that:
a. It is accepted by all parties that Iraqi officials visited Niger in 1999.
b. The British Government had intelligence from several different sources indicating that this visit was for the purpose of acquiring uranium. Since uranium constitutes almost three-quarters of Niger’s exports, the intelligence was credible.
c. The evidence was not conclusive that Iraq actually purchased [emphasis], as opposed to having sought [emphasis], uranium and the British Government did not claim this.
d. The forged documents were not available to the British Government at the time its assessment was made, and so the fact of the forgery does not undermine it."

See also "Bush's "16 Words" on Iraq & Uranium ... ...", The Anneberg Public Policy Center, August 23, 2004.
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07.26.2005 I went back and refreshed myself with Joe Wilson's Op-Ed. Fairly enough, two sentences in the article detail the point that uranium shipments are so closely monitored that skedalleding-off is not likely. But the logic of the article escapes me. No sale or purchase was alleged; and what is seeking purchase, but what any might desire?

Tonight, Integrity Investment Advisors, Inc. of San Diego, California will offer "Equity Index Annuities - 3 critical drawbacks that you must know before you purchase these annuities, and how to correct them". The event is at 7:00 pm at their headquarters,

11772 Sorrento Valley Road, Suite 100
San Diego, CA 92121

(and interested parties should kindly call in an RSVP to 858-523-0093. Refreshments are provided!)

Oh those magic derivatives! With their help, you can fashion any type of payoff expectation for your whimsy. But can an ordinary person use them with ease? Often, the average investor must take care. Care that will take you beyond the intriguing return formulas per se that derivatives offer.

For example, consider a product built with the help of a derivative, an EIA, or equity indexed annuity. Mr. Geoffrey VanderPal tells us "EIA portfolios are a combination of targeted maturity investment grade bonds and a European Call Index Option, which is a derivative security based on the underlying increase in value of an index over time with a set end date for exercise."

A regular annuity allows one to earn a specific, guaranteed, modest and tax-deferrable return on money. With an EIA, one gets a guaranteed minimum return in the stock market in exchange for limiting maximum stock market returns --- a way to play a little bit in the market while keeping a floor under oneself, an insurance.

But can it really work for an average investor? Lynn O'Shaughnessy, who writes in The San Diego Union-Tribune, is sceptical. From "A sure thing? Better to avoid those equity index annuities", March 20, 2005, she notes some of the challenges to EIA investors. These challenges can include tricky participation rates, aggressive marketing, diverse indexing methods, choice in contract lengths and other timing issues, high commission charges, and surrender charges.

Lynn O'Shaughnessy says,

" ... one of the nation's foremost fee-only insurance consultants, suggests that during bad years on Wall Street, EIA investors would be better off owning a plain old fixed annuity or certificate of deposit.

... ... there are plenty of alternatives for EIA’s ... If you absolutely can't afford to lose money, you can stick your money in a certificate of deposit, a fixed annuity or a money market. You could also diversify your risk with a conservative asset mix. You could, for instance, place 80 percent of your money in bond index funds and 20 percent in stock index funds."

There is a nice clue on the complexity of derivatives in what Lynn O'Shaughnessy explains,

"[An] option is to pay someone to analyze the contract, but there aren't many professionals who can even crack the code. When the state of California, for instance, was developing ... a web site for teachers to analyze annuity and mutual fund choices in their 403(b) retirement plans, the developers struggled with the tortuous EIA provisions.

"I was working with some very bright people and their minds were spinning," recalls Scott Dauenhauer, a fee-only financial planner in Laguna Hills who was a consultant on the project."

Because of the complicated return formulas, Daily said, it could even take him several hours to thoroughly understand just one contract.

Mr. Daily understates the concern: To thoroughly understand just one contract can take several years beyond first-order calculus. And, investment strategy, understanding of the market, and an understanding of how EIA's are being marketed and sold.

In short, in today's Finance there is always more to know. Umm', love it!

When the ordinary person thinks about money, the acts of the Fed's FOMC are rarely the first thing springing to mind. Yet what the committee does, and even more what it says, makes for scrutiny in ministries and financial haunts across the globe.

One notes the vast subtlety of it. Is it this shading or that of motive, simple or complex, we extract from Mr. Greenspan and fellows' thought, word, and act? Is it insurance of the Greenspan legacy, drab bureaucracy, maestro care, genius insight (brilliance sufficing for a "Greenspan Put"?), tightening reins, or just ineffable gestures amid the random flux that we observe?

Daniel Kadlec assesses the post-Internet "flood of easy money" has pervaded everything "from oil, gold and timber to stocks, bonds, real estate, art and the price of a Mickey Mantle rookie card" so that happy bargains no longer abound. Thus investors stick with low yield 10 year T-bonds. "Stubbornly low yields are an acknowledgement of the new reality: Today a near certain 4% return looks pretty darn good."

There you have it - take the redounding floods of money and parlay them into Time's unreachable horizon. Ten years, a decade, is not the Now by which you and I sigh, or languish, or wonder -- amazed, thrilled, or stunned.

T-bonds are stubborn and low. Gold, the flowing, liquid, shining stuff? Gold futures are down $8.00 an ounce.

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Readings on the recent FOMC increase of the federal funds rate, the overnight rate charged between banks, by 25 basis points to 3.25%,

From "A New Quarter and The Same Old Questions", The Capital Spectator, Money, Oil, Economics and the Search for the Bottom Line, July 1, 2005,

"The reluctance of the bond market to support the central bank's efforts to raise the price of money across the yield and thereby move closer to inverting the yield curve is a familiar game of late. Therein lies the problem. ...which side will blink first? The Fed will either stop raising rates, and perhaps even lower them ... or the bond market will send up a white flag and sell debt securities and thereby elevate long-term yields."

"... if the growth factor is awakening from its long relative slumber, the case is still less than airtight ..."

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Daniel Kadlec, "What's on Greenspan's Mind?", Time Magazine, July 3, 2005.
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From Wayne Masden, to Should Greenspan step down as chairman of the Fed?, "YES: Greenspan's tendency to shoot from the lip could trigger a recession", The Salt Lake Tribune, July 2, 2005.

" ... the Fed chairman often departs from his prime mission of controlling the nation's monetary policy to launch verbal warning shells at the so-called irrational exuberance in America's housing and stock markets. ... ... he does the nation a disservice when he regularly bad mouths robust growth. ... ... Greenspan has urged that Fannie and Freddie sell-off about 80 percent of their $1.5 trillion portfolio."

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From Pete du Pont, to Should Greenspan step down as chairman of the Fed?, "NO: Greenspan era of growth with low inflation deserves a round of applause", The Salt Lake Tribune, July 2, 2005.

" ... Greenspan recognizes the importance of stimulating economic growth through access to capital for small businesses ... ... a simplified and fair tax code and the repeal of arduous rules that cripple economic growth. That's what Greenspan advocates ..."

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From John Azzopardi Vella, "Half-yearly evaluation of investment predictions", The Sunday Times of Malta, Malta, July 3, 2005.

"... the price of oil, which because of Chinese demand can be expected to remain above $ 50. ... in turn has consequence for Venezuelan sovereign debt, which is safe at that oil price in spite of that country's 23% inflation rate. China is now key to understanding the world economy, including that of Venezuela."

"Nothing succeeds like success in economics. The US is benefiting ... as the Chinese with their dollars buy US Treasury Stocks, keeping down that country's interest rates. If this were not happening, the US would have to sell its Treasury Stocks to other nations at a higher rate of interest, triggering a nasty recession in the US."

"Gold and the dollar ... ... The world is no longer seeking refuge in gold from the high price of oil. It is seeking it in nuclear power. ... ... BHP Billiton ... controls 38% of world uranium. ... ... The Arabs will soon learn what Sheikh Yamani, the Oil Minister of Saudi Arabia, once stated, that the Stone Age did not end because of a lack of stone. The relationship is changing from the dollar to gold, to oil and energy shares."

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From Nell Henderson, "Analysts worry Greenspan Fed too forgiving", The Washington Post, July 03, 2005.

"Investors have come to perceive the Fed's policies of recent years as 'free insurance for aggressive risk-taking' ... ... The idea of 'the Greenspan put' stems in part from the chairman’s success in helping to steady financial markets through the stock market crash of 1987, the recession of 1990-91 and the international financial crises of the 1990s. ... ... Fed board member Donald Kohn noted recently ... ... 'We central bankers are by nature a gloomy lot, trained to focus on what could go wrong ... ...' ."

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from Forbes, AFX News Limited, RPT - "Gold futures fall $8 an ounce, log 3% weekly loss", July 3, 2005.

"Other metals futures closed lower Friday. September copper lost 3.65 cents ... July silver ... down 17.7 cents ...September palladium dipped $2.95 ... ... gold inventories stood at 5.75 million troy ounces ... ... As for mining stocks, key indexes traded lower ... following the weakness in metals futures ..."

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The Federal Reserve Board, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements" Refet Gurkaynak, Brian Sack, Eric Swanson, 2004-66, Keywords: Measuring monetary policy surprises, FOMC statement, factor models, asset prices.

"... ... both monetary policy actions and statements have important but differing effects on asset prices, with statements having a much greater impact on longer-term Treasury yields."

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Dad's finishing "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man". Better to do, to choose, what you love rather than doing something for which you castigate yourself.

With Mr. Ahmadinejad so much in the news yesterday, one wondered, and suspected not, that he likewise castigated himself in his life's pursuits.

Also yesterday, we saw Adam Curtis' interview elaborating his production, "The Power of Nightmares". He attributes high ideology, a motivation run off ideas, to the neo-cons. And charges that a "politics of fear" is pushed onto a naive public. Yet it's a day where one mind, one person, can be massively dangerous, so one fellow's fear is another's prudence.

In the perspective Curtis sketched, are those motivated by Ideas strictly in service of a Hobbesian struggle indicated with a politics of fear? Ideas, are they not lofty and sublime, and thus quiet apart from fear?

I began "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man" yesterday. Easy reading on macroeconomics, good case study on a cultural pathology. With castigating globalization running through the author's story, how much is entirely his own perspective and how much heavy editorial shaping? I am wondering what the ending will be like.

The book could make a nice Father's Day present.